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Yes, yes. I know. More changes. We put our readers through more than they deserve, but we’re forever grateful for your readership. To make this site more flexible and powerful, and to bring you more great content, we’ve switched over to a WordPress.org site. The URL is still www.thefootballprofessor.com so you unless you’ve been using our WordPress domain you won’t have to change your shortcut (you do have us in your Bookmarks, don’t you?)

Let me know what you think about the new 3-column look, or if you have any problems.

Dr. Z Hops on Vikings Bandwagon

From today’s “Inside the NFL” column at SI:

Last year, I locked in my Super Bowl pick early and felt very good about the choice. For once, I wasn’t trying to do a roster breakdown or getting myself up all tied up in strengths and weaknesses. I was looking for a team with a chip on its shoulder, one that would be coming into the season with something to prove, a hungry team, nasty, etc.

The Saints were my Super Bowl winner.

Then they came out and lost their first four. And finished 7-9. All of which should make Brad Childress feel very nervous about the fact that I’m picking his Vikings to … to … dare I say, to win it all?

I’m not a big fan of Dr. Z’s writing but he covers all the angles, from the coach to the draftees to the free agents. The Vikings certainly do have a lot to look forward to if my forecast is accurate, so maybe Dr. Z will have a little more success with his pre-season pick than he did last year (when he should have listened to me!).

Switch Hitter vs Switch Pitcher?

This is ABSOLUTELY HILARIOUS. I myself am a switch hitter and I’d do the same dang thing to that pitcher. Who does he think he is, throwing with both hands? Ridiculous.

Thanks to Bugs & Cranks for finding this gem.

FO Releases First Team Projection

Well, it’s the first projection that I’ve seen.

Article here

Mike Tanier lets slip the following:

Our Pro Football Prospectus 2008 mean projection for the Bears is 6.9 wins

Hmmm…and here on this site, months ago, you found out that our projection was 7 wins. How nice. Still, you probably should buy the Pro Football Prospectus they’re selling over there just because it’s a really great read while you’re on the can. I’ve found that I can crawl through one team’s worth of information in one sitting before my legs start to fall asleep.

Top 10 Trendiest Pre-Season Picks

It’s only the middle of June but I’ve been thinking about football since March (I usually go comatose for a month after the Super Bowl in order to recoup from the season). If you haven’t seen them yet, make sure you check out my pre-season picks or buy a copy of the NFL 2008 PREDICTOPOTAMUS.

We’re about a month away from training camps and a month-and-a-half away from the first pre-season games. What better time than the present to talk about those teams that year in and year out get picked by analysts to succeed, then come up short.

#10 - Houston Texans

Houston hasn’t finished better than .500 in their six years of existence. Unfortunately for them, the previous three expansion teams (Cleveland, Carolina and Jacksonville) all made it to the playoffs relatively quickly and expectations have been a bit higher than they should have been. The Texans’ draft picks have been good but not great and their off-season acquisitions haven’t panned out like many analysts thought they would. I think that most people generally expect Houston to finish in the .500 range every year but they’ve only come close twice, which is why they’re my #10 Trendiest Pre-Season Pick.

#9 - Miami Dolphins

I think we all remember 2004 when the trendy picks were Carolina and Miami, and then both teams tanked and missed the playoffs. That, coupled with the 1-15 record the ‘Fins posted in 2007, will scare a lot of analysts away from Miami in 2008. The Dolphins, however, are seemingly always on somebody’s list to make the playoffs. They had 15 consecutive seasons of .500 or better from 1989 to 2003, so they have winning history behind them, and they won 9 games in 2005 so it wouldn’t really shock anybody to see Miami catch some momentum.

#8 - New York Jets

Since 2002 the Jets have been alternating playoff seasons, and that unpredictability makes a lot of analysts afraid to pick against them. Last year they went 4-12, so will they make another jump up to 10-6 like they did from 2005 to 2006? Will they tank it? Who knows. That’s why they’re #8 on my list of the Trendiest Pre-Season Picks.

#7 - New Orleans Saints

In 2005 the Saints suffered through the aftereffects of Hurrican Katrina and won only three games. Expectations for 2006 were pretty low and the leap to 10-6 and NFC Runner-Up caught the nation off guard. In 2007 the Saints were a VERY trendy pick to go to the Super Bowl but they came up short and finished 7-9. Any time you have a team with a good offense and poor defense the analysts will be all over the place with their predictions, but the emotional factor (everybody loves New Orleans now) makes the Saints a trendy pick again in 2008.

#6 - Denver Broncos

Like Miami, the Broncos have a winning tradition behind them that makes them seem like a Super Bowl contender every pre-season. They do make the playoffs on a pretty consistent basis but where are the championships? Where are the rings? This is a team that wins regular season games and then flops in the playoffs (see violent losses in 2003 and 2004 to Indianapolis). Undoubtedly they’ll be expected to contend in the weak AFC West, but don’t get your hopes up for greatness.

#5 - Cincinnati Bengals

The Carson Palmer Era was supposed to include annual playoff appearances and some championships. In 2005 they almost made it but an injury to the aforementioned quarterback in the playoffs sent them home early. In 2006 analysts (including myself) expected Palmer to lead his team back to the post-season but they finished with eight wins. In 2007 analysts (including myself) expected improvement but were again met with a sub-par season and seven wins. Cincinnati has the potential every year to be a contender, but their problems both on and off the field drag them down to mediocrity. The Bengals are like your grannie’s dentures…they sure do look real but they keep falling out…and that’s why they’re my #5 Trendiest Pre-Season Pick.

#4 - Detroit Lions

What? Really? Detroit? Every year since 2002 has been “the year” for these poor suckers. Take it from me…I used to be a Lions fan until this past year. There is always at least one analyst who jumps on the Detroit bandwagon and in 2007 the Lions almost pulled off the impossible (a winning season under Matt Millen). Unfortunately the 6-2 start was followed by a 1-7 slide and things returned to normal. Undoubtedly Detroit will be picked by many to win eight games in 2008, making them a very Trend Pre-Season Pick.

#3 - Carolina Panthers

I mentioned it earlier when speaking about Miami, but I’ll say it again - everyone remembers 2004. Carolina was supposed to be really good, coming off of a very impressive Super Bowl loss to New England. They fell victim to the Super Bowl Loser’s Curse and missed the playoffs that next year but they didn’t fall far enough to drop off of the radar completely. Carolina has only ever had one really bad year and they have had three 7-9 seasons in the past six years, making them a consistent playoff pick in the NFC.

#2 - San Francisco 49′ers

Their last playoff appearance was in 2002, but the San Francisco 49′ers are just unpredictable enough to be a real pain for analysts. They were moderately popular in 2004 and then won two games. They were slightly more popular in 2005 when they won four games. Their popularity continued to grow in 2006 and 2007 when they won seven and five games respectively. Every year they become a trendier pick, and every year they come up short. I’m even jumping on board this year…I think that the 49′ers could be the NFC #6 seed in 2008. Maybe that’s why the 49′ers are my #2 Trendiest Pre-Season Pick.

#1 - Arizona Cardinals

This should be a no-brainer. The Cardinals have been the trendy pick since I was in high school. Every year they pick up these free agents who are supposed to rejuvenate the team, and every year they finish below .500. Their draft picks have been solid athletes (Larry Fitzgerald, Matt Leinart) but there always seems to be one piece of the puzzle missing (offensive line, defense, running back). Analysts always expect that piece to be discovered during the off-season and make their bold playoff predictions only to see the Cardinals flop. In 2007 they finished .500 for the first time since 1998 and they certainly do appear to be on the verge of something big…

…but that’s why they’re my #1 Trendist Pre-Season Pick.

My yOOnew Extravaganza…Part V

My Steelers-Vikings Fantasy Seat is ON FIRE!

The price jumped over $18.00 yesterday, giving me over $4 profit if I sell this sucker. Of course I’m not going to, as I think this ticket could hit $300-$400 when all is said and done. Heck, If the Steelers and Vikings go to the Super Bowl I’m going to be sitting on several grand if I decide to scalp the ticket once I get it. Woohoo!

Dojis in the Dugout: #600

We all know that baseball is a sport soaked in numbers. As soon as little kids get their first packs of baseball cards they’re stewing over RBIs, ERAs and Slugging %s. Since stats are such an integral part of the baseball it is only natural that it is more known for its milestones than any other sport. Baseball has all sorts of “clubs” like the 30/30 Club, 500 Home Run Club or the .300 Club. These clubs aren’t really clubs; they are not organized and are not official groups of players. Baseball’s clubs are created by the fans as a means of comparing players and determining which players were better during their respective careers.

Yesterday, Ken Griffey Jr. joined a new club. Griffey’s 2-run home run against the Marlins was the 600th of his career. He is the sixth player in MLB history to hit 600 round-trippers. He’ll forever be known as a member of the 600 Home Run Club and will no doubt be inducted into the Hall of Fame on his first ballot.

Perhaps I’m being a little nit-picky, but if you’re a regular reader you know that isn’t anything new. Ken Griffey’s 600th home run put him in one of the most elite clubs in all of baseball, but was his 600th home run really that momentous? Should a player be judged by the clubs that he is a part of? A lot of the emphasis has been placed on the fact that Griffey is only the sixth player in history to hit 600 home runs but wasn’t he also the sixth player in history to hit 587? It was only July of last year when Griffey passed Frank Robinson for sixth on the all-time list. To me, that was a much bigger occasion than hitting number 600. Ten home runs from now Griffey will pass Sammy Sosa for fifth on the all-time list but I honestly don’t think the media will make such a big deal out of it. We really won’t hear a lot about Griffey until he hits his 661st home run and passes Willie Mays for fourth all-time…and there is a big “if” looming over that number considering Griffey’s propensity for injury.

I suppose it’s best to just say “congrats Ken” and leave it at that. 600 is a lot of long-balls. I just hope that we don’t see a player hit just under 500 and get left out of the Hall of Fame because he wasn’t part of the “club”.

BUY YOUR PREDICTOPOTAMUS

Back in March I first announced the completion of the first ever NFL PREDICTOPOTAMUS, our very own pre-season publication. It’s 43 pages of technical charts and predictions that will make you look like a visionary come playoff time. If you want something more than the predictions you’ve found on this site, the PREDICTOPOTAMUS is for you.

Ordering is a piece of cake - just send me an email at footballprofessor@gmail.com and let me know what format you want yours in. I can do .DOC, .PDF, even straight paper if you want it shipped out to you (shipping charges apply).

The price? A mere $14.99. Who can beat that? If you join our group on Facebook you can even get an additional 10% off for a limited time.

Thanks, Momentum, and My yOOnew Extravaganza IV

A couple items of business today:

First, many thanks to those of you who waited patiently for me to put a few finishing touches on the NFL 2008 PREDICTOPOTAMUS. If you have already received your copy, let us know what you think.

Second, here’s a little paper I wrote for the Football Outsiders that they didn’t publish. Something about heading in different directions.

measuring-momentum1

Third, my yOOnew Fantasy Seat for the Steelers-Vikings Super Bowl is now at $14.51. It’s been fluctuating recently and hit $14.38 before jumping back up.

My yOOnew Extravaganza…Part III

Oh no!

The price of Super Bowl XLIII Steelers-Vikings Section D fantasy seats dropped this afternoon, crashing to $14.48.

I’m sure we’ll see more fluctuations like this as the season gets nearer, but I certainly don’t want to see that price dip below the $14.35 I paid up front. I want profits baby!